“A Social Security Plan for All” by Robert C. Pozen
“ ... Progressive indexing means the continuation of wage indexing for all workers retiring in 2012 and later years whose career earnings average $25,000 per year or less (indexed to wages over time). All thsee low-wage workers would receive the SS benefits they are presentkly scheduled to receive... . Most of these low-wage workers do not have sources of retirement income other than SS--e.g., 401(k) plans or IRAs. Progressive indexing would also maintain current schedules for SS benefits for all retirees and all those retiring before 2012.
“The initial benefits of all workers with career earnings above $113,000 per year in 2012 (the maximum wage base subject to FICA taxes in that year) would be increased by price indexing
“The initial benefits of workers above $25,000 per year and lower than $113,000 per year in average career earnings would be increased by a proportional mix of wage and price indexing. For example, a worker with career earnings of $69,000 per year would have his or her SS benefits adjusted upward approximately 50% by wage indexing and 50% by price indexing.
“As a result, the SS benefits of middle and high earners would not grow as quickly as their schedule benefits would have otherwise. But this should not be terms a ‘cut’ for two reasons. First, the SS benefits of these workers in 2012 and later years will be higher, in nominal and real terms, than their SS benefits would have been had they retired in 2004 with the same average earnings during their careers. Second, these workers will have the option (but not the requirement) to earn back most (and perhaps all) of their escheduled benefits thruogh a combination of their slower growing SS benefits and the payments from their balanced accounts,.... .”
[The document goes on to cover "Balanced Accounts" which would be run by the trustees of the Federal Thrift Plan, and a measure to improve solvency.]
“... Starting in 2007, workers under 57 years of age will be permitted to allocate to BAs [Balanced Accounts] 2% of their FICA wages, up to $3,000 per year (increased annual to reflect price inflation). If these workers contribute 2% less a year to the SS system, at retirement they must accept a reduced level of SS benefits than otherwise would be provided by the SS system. Therefore, if these reductions are calculated accurately, the BAs should be revenue neutral to the SS system over the century. However, critics can be expected to point out that the Federal Government would need to borrow monies to finance the transition from the current system to PIBA [Progressive Indexing with Balanced Accounts], since SS needs current FICA taxes to make current payments to retirees.”
Click to read this PDF file now
“Benefits Should Grow Faster in the Future For Low-Income Workers Than For Those Who Are Better Off.
“Under a reformed system, low-income workers should receive benefits that grow faster than inflation. In order to return the system to solvency, the benefit increases for wealthier seniors should grow no faster than the rate of inflation. This would be accomplished by adopting a sliding-scale benefit formula, similar to the Pozen approach.”
Presidential Action
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Background on Presidential Action
View a graphical comparison [as of 2/24/2005] of the proposals of:
Proposals include one that "raises the retirement age three months every two years, or 1.25 years every decade, and taxes all wages for both Social Security and Medicare."
Mr. Gramlich cites the experience of countries such as Italy and Japan where the ratio of workers versus retirees is expected to drop "to less than 1"
The Office of the Chief Actuary (OACT) at Social Security has prepared a complete actuarial analyses, showing the estimated effects on the long-range financial status of the OASDI program, which would likely result from various proposals currently "on the table" that address the long-range solvency problem of OASDI. Differing assumptions are used, and the OACT groups its analyses according to the assumptions used.
Using Intermediate Assumptions of the 2004 Trustees Report:
See also these links:
Using the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2003 Trustees Report:
Using the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2002 Trustees Report:
Using the Intermediate Assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report:
Click to read. The National Commission on Social Security made 88 recommendations to Congress to strengthen Social Security and avert a crisis.
“... The system of personal retirement accounts would be similar to the Federal employee retirement program, known as the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP). Contributions would be collected and records maintained by a central administrator.
“Personal retirement accounts would be invested in a mix of conservative bond and stock funds. Workers would be permitted to allocate their personal retirement account contributions among a small number of very broadly diversified index funds patterned after the current TSP funds.
“Personal retirement accounts would be protected from sudden market swings on the eve of retirement. To protect workers as they near retirement, personal retirement accounts would be automatically invested in the "life cycle portfolio" when a worker reaches age 47, unless the worker and his or her spouse specifically opted out by signing a waiver form stating they are aware of the risks involved. The life cycle portfolio would gradually shift the allocation of investments as the individual neared retirement so that it was weighted more heavily toward low-risk bonds.
“Personal retirement accounts would not be eaten up by hidden Wall Street fees. Personal retirement accounts would be low-cost. Most of the administrative fees, estimated at 30 basis points, would be for recordkeeping, which would be done by the government, not investment management done by Wall Street.
“Personal retirement accounts would not be accessible prior to retirement. Account holders would not be allowed to make withdrawals from, take loans from, or borrow against their accounts prior to retirement.
“Personal retirement accounts could not be emptied out all at once, but rather would be paid out over time, as an addition to traditional Social Security benefits. Security procedures would be established to govern how account balances would be withdrawn at retirement.
“Personal retirement accounts would be phased in. To ease the transition to a personal retirement account system, participation would be phased in over three years according to the age of the worker. ...”
On May 2, 2001 President Bush announced establishment of a bipartisan, 16-member Commission "to study and report specific recommendations to preserve Social Security for seniors while building wealth for younger Americans."
The Commission was asked to make recommendations to modernize and restore fiscal soundness to Social Security, using six guiding principles:
“... [T]he Commission worked with the 2001 Trustees' Report estimates, which showed that Social Security's benefit obligations will start to exceed annual cash income in 2016.(This date has shifted to 2017 in the most recent [that is, 2002] Trustees' Report.) At this point, the federal government will have to allocate additional cash to the Social Security program to cover promised or scheduled benefits. Specifically, Congress will have to allocate not only all projected payroll tax dollars, but also more additional [sic] revenues to redeem debt held by the Social Security Trust Fund. The figure [see PDF file, p.2] shows that, under current law, these costs will escalate very rapidly, and the revenue and cost lines will forever pull further apart. ...”
“... below the surface, the battles are becoming ever more specific: 'add-on' accounts versus 'carve-out' accounts; 'wage-indexing' versus 'price indexing'; higher payroll taxes versus delayed retirement ages.
The choices are often expressed in the jargon of benefit formulas and actuarial analysis. But they would lead to profoundly different results for retirees in the future.
Here is a guide to the debate.
How Big a Problem?
President Bush often warns about an $11 trillion deficit, and others refer to a $4 trillion deficit. Both estimates come from the Social Security program's trustees, but neither sheds much light on its own.
The lower estimate is the projected gap between payroll tax revenues and benefit costs over the next 75 years. The $11 trillion estimate is the gap projected to infinity.
But the long-term problem is less daunting when it is compared with the amount of money people would be earning in the future. The trustees estimate that the 75-year shortfall is equal to about 1.92 percent of projected payrolls. In other words, the shortfall could be eliminated by immediately raising payroll taxes to 14.32 percent from 12.4 percent.
That would be a painful jump in payroll taxes - about $960 for a person who earns $50,000 a year - or a comparable drop in benefits. But the projected gap is smaller than the cost of making President Bush's tax cuts permanent, and it is about one-sixth the long-term gap projected for Medicare.
Looking at the Cash
Another way to look at the problem is in terms of cash flow. The trustees project that Social Security will start running deficits in 2017, and reserves in the trust fund will be used up by 2041. Without any changes in the law, the government would have to slash benefits by about 27 percent to match up with incoming payroll taxes.
But the cash-flow problems start much earlier, because drawing on the trust fund is different from Paris Hilton drawing on her inheritance. The government already spends the annual Social Security surpluses - $156 billion in 2004 - on regular government operations. If the surpluses disappear on schedule in 2017, the government will have to come up with cash equal to nearly two years of war costs in Iraq - and more each year after that.
According to the Social Security trustees, the annual shortfall will exceed $1 trillion in current dollars in 2040.
How Private Accounts Work
One crucial battle is over carve-out accounts and add-on accounts.
Mr. Bush favors a carve-out approach, so named because the money for private accounts would be carved out of existing payroll taxes. Mr. Bush's plan would allow people to divert up to 4 percentage points of their payroll taxes - about two-thirds of a worker's Social Security contribution - to private accounts.
This approach would require huge borrowing over the next two decades, possibly more than $4 trillion, because the government would lose revenue while still having to pay full benefits to retirees who had already earned benefits under today's system.
Mr. Bush and his supporters say the government would eventually get all the money back, because benefit costs would decline as retirees in the future relied more heavily on their private accounts.
Democratic lawmakers say that would be fiscally reckless. But many Democrats support add-on accounts, like today's 401(k) plans, that would come on top of today's system.
In themselves, neither type of account addresses the shortfall for Social Security.
Mr. Bush's plan would cut benefits, but would also cut tax revenues. Add-on accounts would increase savings - some would call it a new tax - but would not reduce government obligations.
At least for the moment, neither approach has enough support to pass Congress.
What's a Clawback?
If Mr. Bush's plan ever gets any traction in Congress, this could be a huge sleeper issue.
For every dollar that a person diverts from taxes to a private account under Mr. Bush's plan, the government would reduce that person's retirement benefit by a dollar, compounded at an annual interest rate of 3 percent above inflation.
In other words, a person would have to earn 3 percent a year on his or her private account - 6 percent, at today's inflation rate - to break even.
The administration based this offset - sometimes called a clawback - on the supposedly risk-free average return on Treasury bonds.
But administration officials worry privately that the break-even point is too high. The actual yield on inflation-protected Treasury bonds, known as TIPS, is only 2 percent.
A 2 percent offset would make personal accounts much less risky, and could mean thousands of dollars more for a person at retirement. But it could also greatly increase the cost of Mr. Bush's plan.
What's an Increase?
The last big changes in Social Security, based on recommendations to Congress from a bipartisan commission in 1983, sought to extend the program's solvency through a combination of tax increases and benefit cuts, and many experts say something similar is needed for the shortfalls ahead.
Mr. Bush staunchly opposes any increase in the payroll tax rate, but he has not ruled out an increase in the payroll tax ceiling, a step that could raise just as much money.
Under current law, payroll taxes are applied on wages and salaries only up to $90,000 a year. About 6 percent of workers earn more than that, accounting for about 15 percent of aggregate pay.
According to the National Academy of Social Insurance, imposing the payroll tax on all pay would raise 116 percent of the expected shortfall.
If the earnings ceiling were lifted, but people also earned extra benefits for their extra taxes, the academy estimated that the shortfall would still decline by 93 percent. That is because high-income people get a much smaller benefit for each dollar of payroll tax than low-income people do.
Several polls show that raising the ceiling on payroll taxes is more popular than any proposal for cutting benefits. But that does not mean it can pass Congress; any such proposal would invite bitter opposition from millions of rich, educated and politically engaged voters.
What's a Cut?
If Social Security benefits simply rose in line with inflation, experts say the program might not even have a shortfall. But under a law passed in 1977, benefits rise with wages, and wages rise about one percentage point a year on average faster than prices.
Earlier this year, White House officials floated the idea of price indexing. A person's initial benefit would have the same buying power in the future as today, but it would be about half what is now promised to a worker starting off now.
Actuarial experts say price indexing would save enough to close the projected $4 trillion shortfall. But experts say benefits would not keep up with rises in the standard of living. If benefits had remained constant ever since 1940, for example, retirees might have enough money for black-and-white television sets but not for cable television. More concretely, people would feel much poorer upon retirement because Social Security would replace a much lower share of a person's pre-retirement income.
Under current law, Social Security benefits would replace about 40 percent of a middle-income worker's pay in 2065, according to the Congressional Budget Office. With price indexing, it would replace only 21.7 percent.
A newer variant is progressive price indexing, which would apply the new formula only to people above a particular income level. Benefits for people in the bottom third of earnings would rise in line with the general standard of living.
Proposed by Robert Pozen, a former executive at Fidelity Investments, the idea has many supporters in the White House.
Government actuaries estimate the proposal could close about three-quarters of the projected shortfall over 75 years. But it could also deepen political divisions: high-income people already get a much smaller return on their payroll taxes than low-income workers, and that gap would widen every year.
Should People Work Longer?
Life expectancies have risen, and they are expected to keep rising in the future. Under changes imposed in 1983, the "normal retirement age" is gradually climbing to 67 from 65 for those reaching retirement in 2022.
If the normal retirement age was set at 67 immediately and raised to 68 over the next 12 years, the National Academy of Social Insurance estimated the shortfall would shrink by 28 percent. If the retirement age kept climbing gradually to 70, the shortfall would decline by 36 percent.
Many experts contend that delayed retirement would simply reflect improving health care. Critics counter that it would be unfair to people with physically demanding jobs or lower-income people, who on average die younger than the well-off.
Polls show none of the alternatives are popular with voters, which is why President Bush has yet to get specific and why even Republican lawmakers are pessimistic about passing a law this year.
Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
MR: STEIN: ... In the United States today we are facing a crisis in “retirement readiness.” More than 77 million “baby boomers” are rapidly approaching retirement. The majority are seriously under-prepared to meet the huge financial needs they will face. Other millions are in the "war baby" cohort already at retirement age and likewise have seriously under funded pension provisions on a personal level.
There are a number of factors fueling this crisis. Comprehensive pension plans, so called defined benefit plans, are rapidly becoming an endangered species. Instead, the responsibility for funding and managing retirement is now in the hands of the future retirees themselves through vehicles including 401(k)s, IRAs and other retirement vehicles.
While Social Security, which we assume you in government will maintain in a vital, strong form, was never intended to be the primary source of an individuals’ retirement income, it may play a diminishing role in the future for a variety of reasons.
At the same time, Americans are living longer, healthier lives. This means that retirement incomes will need to last longer than ever. In addition, healthcare costs are rising dramatically, putting a further demand on individuals’ retirement income needs.
And, on top of all of this, the stock market drop between 2000 and 2003 dramatically reduced a significant portion of many Americans’ accumulated assets earmarked for retirement.
In other words, there is a very large gap between what Americans have in the way of income for retirement and what they are going to need to retire. In the aggregate, the amount is in the trillions. On a per family basis, it is in the hundreds of thousands.
As a result, millions of Americans will fall short of accumulating the assets necessary to maintain the standard of living they have grown accustomed to when they retire. For many, this will require that they retire later than planned, try to find some form of employment in retirement to generate additional income or dramatically scale back their retirement lifestyles. None of these is desirable.
... There are a number of alarming statistics underscoring the seriousness of the retirement readiness crisis.
Many Americans assume that their retirement income will come primarily from Social Security. The reality is that Social Security was never intended to be the sole means of an individual’s retirement income. According to the Social Security Administration, in 2001, Social Security supplied only 39 percent of total retirement income for persons 65 and older. This percentage is likely to fall in the future.
Thus, the ability of Social Security to fully support the desired lifestyles of large numbers of baby boomers approaching retirement is clearly inadequate.
In the past, many Americans could depend on employer-sponsored pension programs to fund their retirement, but these programs are becoming less and less common. In 2001, only 30 percent of participants in private sector retirement plans were in defined benefit plans. And, according to Wilshire Associates, a global investment advisory firm, a significant majority of corporate pension plans are under funded.
Individually, many Americans have failed to plan for two key retirement income risk factors that may cause their retirement resources to run out well before their retirement objectives are fulfilled.
The first is “Longevity Risk,” the risk of outliving retirement assets. According to the Society of Actuaries, for those individuals that reach 65, more than 50 percent of single women and more than 40 percent of single men will still be alive at age 85. For married couples, in over 70 percent of the cases at least one spouse will still be alive at age 85. Consequently, if these survivors had planned to have their retirement income last just until their life expectancy of 85, they would have depleted their retirement savings considerably before they die, again, a highly undesirable situation.
The second, “Financial Market Risk,” is the risk that capital market fluctuation may result in the reduction and/or depletion of the value of one’s retirement assets. Unfortunately, there are market events, such as the recent three-year sustained market downturn, where a constant withdrawal strategy combined with prolonged negative market forces can result in a complete depletion of assets far sooner than planned.
The dramatically rising costs of healthcare have added to the problem. AARP estimates that 46 percent of people over 65 will live in nursing homes for some time during the next 20 years, costing as much as $100,000 per year. This is a devastating drain on resources for many retirees. The reality is that all healthcare costs are increasing year-to-year at a staggering pace. And it is clear that many pre-retirees have not planned for these costs.
For women, these challenges are even more dramatic. Since women live, on average, considerably longer than men, their money will need to last longer in retirement. Yet there is no sign that they have saved accordingly.
Probably the biggest factor fueling the retirement readiness crisis is that Americans simply are not saving enough. Charles Schwab estimates that individuals need to save $230,000 for every $1,000 they will need in monthly retirement income. However, only 31 percent of working Americans have saved $100,000 or more for retirement in total. Obviously, a major disconnect between needs and resources is in the making.
In addition, only about 15 percent of working-age Americans have an IRA, and only 22 percent contribute to a 401(k) plan, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute and the U.S. Census Bureau.
... To address the retirement readiness crisis, it is imperative that all Americans develop a personal retirement plan. Americans need to understand that they must take personal responsibility for their financial futures.
Our group, The National Retirement Planning Coalition, is traveling around the country teaching that the solution to this problem will come from individual action by tens of millions of American families: making a retirement savings plan; finding a competent, respectable financial advisor to help with the plan; substantially adding to savings to make the plan a reality; and sticking to the plan during and after retirement.
A personal retirement plan enables each American to set specific retirement goals, put specific mechanisms in place to help them reach those goals and ensure a steady stream of income to support their retirement lifestyles. While each person’s retirement plan will be unique, most retirement plans will include a mix of savings and investment strategies.
We believe these plans should call for diversification of savings: mutual funds, bonds, real estate, stocks, and annuities. I especially like variable annuities because I saw them work so well in my parents' lives and because they shift the risk of outliving one's savings from the retiree to the insurer – and outliving your savings is a highly undesirable situation to be in.
The first place Americans should start is to evaluate their personal finances. Uncontrolled debt, particularly from credit cards, can significantly hinder retirement savings efforts. Reducing or eliminating such debt – which may first require evaluating personal spending patterns – will help ensure more money is available each month to put aside for retirement. This should be a top priority for prospective retirees.
Americans should also be sure to take advantage of available tax-deferred investment opportunities. Many companies offer 401(k), profit sharing or defined benefit retirement plans. These offer tax advantages and often incorporate matching contributions made by the employer. This option also makes it easy for Americans to save since the money is taken directly from their paychecks.
Other tax-deferred vehicles, such as IRAs, Roth IRAs and Keogh plans, should also be considered. And, by diversifying investment vehicles to include lifetime income-producing financial instruments, retirees can significantly minimize the impact of longevity and financial market risks to their accumulated assets. It is hard to overestimate the value of transferring risk from oneself to a large insurer where issues of lifetime financial security are concerned.
With the complexity of financial options available today for retirees, many people will need help and guidance. For many Americans, this will mean consulting with a certified financial advisor or retirement planner. Keeping current with tax law changes, private letter rulings and complicated tax planning can be a difficult task. In addition, portfolio risk exposure may need to be reduced as retirement nears. There are thousands of qualified financial professionals who can help Americans get started developing a plan, or direct them to the appropriate person. These people include bankers, life insurance agents, investment brokers, accountants, and estate-planning attorneys. They are there to help, and should be called upon.
The main requirement is to address the problem in one's head, then take action, and to start now. Any amount of planning and preparation is better than none, and none is what far too many Americans are doing. People always ask me if it's not too late to start when you're in your late forties or fifties. I always say, "It is never too late to do better than not starting at all." And for younger workers, the earlier they start, the easier the entire process will be.
But it will take some sacrifice and self-discipline. It is impossible to both spend as much as you want and save as much as you want for most people. We are a nation that is unmatched in spending. Now we have to learn about savings – and for the baby boomers, we have to learn fast. The prospect of being old and without adequate funds should be more than sufficient inducement to all but the very most resistant boomers.
The National Retirement Planning Coalition stands ready to help, especially with our website, www.retireonyourterms.org. There is a wealth of information there, including an extremely ingenious retirement calculator that tells users how much they need to save to reach their goals. We hope people will use it and take heed of its numbers.
In America, the greatest of free countries, we create our own reality in large measure. The National Retirement Planning Coalition’s goal is to educate Americans to create the reality of a comfortable, secure retirement by planning and action to increase and diversity their retirement savings.
Americans need to begin planning for their retirements immediately to make sure they will have the income necessary to achieve their desired retirement lifestyles, and also to have the peace of mind knowing that their financial futures are secure. My message to Americans is that it is not too late to ensure that you can Retire On Your Terms.
Thank you very much. ...”
convened by the Department of Labor under the SAVER Act of 1997 and co-hosted by White House and Congress
PRESIDENT BUSH:“... Saving is never easy; it's hard for some to do. But it's always worthwhile. Particularly when you think about the power of compounding interest. The power of compound interest is one of the great advantages of American citizens. And they must learn to use it. If a worker starts saving just $20 a week at age 22, and earns a 5.5 percent real interest rate on the investment, that adds up to a nest egg of nearly $180,000 by age 65.
“This summit was created by Congress to educate workers and citizens about the power and rewards of saving, and I want to thank you for participating. You've accomplished a great deal, but there's much more to do.
“Americans are saving too little -- often, dangerously too little. The average 50-year-old in America has less than $40,000 in personal financial wealth. The average American retires with only enough savings to provide 60 percent of his former annual income.This problem is especially acute for women and minorities.
“We must encourage for all our people the security and independence provided by savings. I want America to be an ownership society, a society where a life of work becomes a retirement of independence. ...”
convened by the Department of Labor under the SAVER Act of 1997 and co-hosted by White House and Congress
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN:“One of the most complex economic calculations that most workers will ever undertake is, without doubt, deciding how much to save for retirement. At every stage of life, individuals ought to make judgments about their likely earnings before retirement and their desired lifestyle in retirement. Also implicit in such decisions are assumptions about prospective rates of return, life expectancy, and the possible accumulation of a nest egg for one's children. The difficulty that individuals face in making these projections and choices is compounded by the need to forecast personal and economic events many years into the future.
“Insurance companies make some of the same judgments in calculating premiums for annuity contracts or life insurance. Defined-benefit pension plans make similar calculations for large groups of employees. The social security and medicare trustees replicate some of the same calculations in their annual assessments of the actuarial viability of those programs. Aside from these institutionalized forms of retirement saving, of course, is the discretionary saving that each of us does consciously by periodically setting aside portions of our income. ...”
“... The theme of the Summit was “Saving for a Lifetime: Advancing Generational Prosperity.” The Summit delegates participated in breakout sessions focusing on four specific generational groups: the Millennial Generation (individuals born from 1982 to present day), Generation X (1961-1981), the Baby Boom Generation (1943-1960) and the Silent Generation (1925-1942). ...”
SECRETARY CHAO: “... every year of our longer lives is bringing new change.Our workplaces and homes have been transformed by technology, from computers to cell phones to the Internet.The 20th century saw 19 business cycles, an explosion in global markets, and the creation of whole new industries and services.Where once people worked a lifetime for one employer, today’s 32-year-olds have already worked for an average of nine different companies.Innovation in the financial world has brought new investment vehicles, from mutual funds to defined contribution plans. ...
“... [I]f Americans are to enjoy a secure retirement tomorrow, they must plan and save today.For most people, this means learning new saving and investment strategies, and having lifelong awareness about their retirement needs.In this changing world, we need to re-learn how to save, in the same way that the changing workplace has required ongoing retraining in new job skills. ...
“... Our first challenge is to get the message out. ... create retirement-saving campaigns for four key generations ... [A]t different life-stages, different life-demands affect how people save.Young people are starting careers and families.At mid-life, people find themselves working every hour of the day to manage busy lives and responsibilities.Older Americans are marshalling their resources for retirement. ...
“... It’s easy, for example, for young people to assume that retirement is tomorrow’s worry.But the magic of compounding means that the earlier we save, the larger our nest egg will be when we retire.Take a 20-year-old who’s got $100 in hand.Maybe she thinks that’s too little to save to make a difference.She needs to know that her $100, invested now, can grow to more than $1900 by the time she’s 65. That’s in real, inflation-adjusted dollars, by the way, and it assumes historical rates of growth.In contrast, if she waits until she’s 40 to save that $100, she’ll end up with less than half as much at age 65. ...
“... [O]ur second challenge [is] to channel our national energies, public and private, to give people the help they need to save.
“Let me start with employers.It is at the workplace that Americans can find some of the most important vehicles for personal retirement savings.Yet, today [2002], almost half of all working Americans do not have access to a company retirement plan.
“In businesses with 100 or fewer employees, only one worker in four participates in a company retirement plan. And even where employees have access to a plan, all too many fail to participate, or do not contribute as much as they can – especially, minority workers and youths.
“The private sector has a huge stake in turning this around. ... The financial community also has a stake in improving retirement saving. Currently, there are $2 trillion in 401(k) assets.This represents the hopes and aspirations of 42 million Americans for a secure, decent retirement.It also helps fuel America’s capital markets.But whether and how much people save depends on their confidence that their hard-earned money will be honestly and wisely invested.
“The fact is, most people simply don’t have the time or inclination to become experts in managing financial portfolios, even their own.They have jobs to do, children to take care of, and bills to pay.Especially in less certain economic times, people need help to chart their retirement strategies; strategies that will fit their lives and goals; strategies that respond quickly to new and changing investment options and realities. ...”
Congressional Breakfast - At the Congressional breakfast on the second day of the Summit, Senators Arlen Specter and Tim Johnson joined Representatives Earl Pomeroy and Sam Johnson to offer a variety of perspectives on retirement savings.
Senator Arlen Specter said he supported legislation to increase the limit on IRAs from $2,000 to $5,000. “To defer those funds for retirement is really very, very vital,” he said.
On the idea of personal retirement accounts for Social Security, Specter commented, “I’ve always been reluctant to see individuals manage their own portfolios because it is so complicated. But if a portion of it were to be set aside so that there was still security in the balance, and [the investing] was done with professional management, then I think it has a lot of merit.”
Representative Earl Pomeroy—an original co-sponsor of the SAVER legislation—began by noting that today’s retirement system arose haphazardly, yet the elements “all work together by fortuitous accident in kind of a complementary fashion,” providing universal coverage, basic income guarantees, strong incentives for personal responsibility and a significant role for employers.”
One problem, however, is the need to match an individual’s nest egg to their longevity, he said. “We’ve been looking at asset buildup. What about asset drawdown relative to years in retirement?” Annuity vehicles will become a popular tool for addressing this risk, he suggested. Congress can help with tax incentives to encourage the purchase of annuities. “I’m convinced that we’d save money in the long run doing the tax incentive for annuity purchase, instead of being prepared to pay full services for people who have outlived their assets by not having the protection,” he said.
Pomeroy argued against private retirement accounts, charging they would add unacceptable risk to a retirement system that already has “loads of risk.” Yet the two sides can find common ground, he urged. One way would to be to stop spending Social Security payroll taxes on unrelated government functions. “Budget projections show we’re on track to spend $1.5 trillion of cash coming in for Social Security on other government expenses over the next ten years. This is unacceptable.” He stated that Social Security funds should be reserved for Social Security.
Representative Sam Johnson, co-sponsor with Chairman Boehner of the Pension Security Act and Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Employer/Employee Relations, said his committee plans to address the fact that many companies simply cannot afford to offer retirement plans. The problem, Johnson said, is “well-intentioned government regulation” that imposes high costs on employers, preventing many from setting up plans.
Senator Tim Johnson, the final breakfast speaker, chairs the Senate’s Financial Institutions Subcommittee. Along with colleagues on the Banking Committee, Johnson has co-sponsored the Safe and Fair Deposit Insurance Act of 2002 (the Safety Act), which proposes that FDIC coverage be extended from its current limit of $100,000 to $250,000 in the case of retirement accounts. “We ought to allow people to put it into hometown banks and keep that money turning over in their local community, while at the same time giving themselves an insured safe haven for their money,” he argued.
Scheduled to expire in 2006, this credit under EGTRRA (the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001) balances, to some extent, the strong tendency of those tax credits aimed at encouraging savings to weigh favorably with taxpayers in the higher income brackets and to be meaningless to those who pay little or no tax, with or without the credits.
The Saver's Credit is an income tax credit that is available to eligible taxpayers who contribute to a retirement plan or IRA ... taxpayers with adjusted gross income that does not exceed $50,000. Click to download 5 page PDF publication.
In a PDF formatted booklet, Principal Financial Group describes the Saver's Credit along with a sample explanatory notice employers can give to employees.
Scheduled to expire in 2006, this credit under EGTRRA (the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001) balances to some extent the tendency of tax credits to encourage savings to appeal more strongly to those in higher income brackets.
For a detailed explanation of the Saver's Credit by the Retirement Security Project, click here.
PRESIDENT BUSH:“... what's called a personal retirement account. Essentially, that would be a conservative mix of bonds and stocks that grows over time. Today, the real rate of return on the Social Security for your money is about 1.8 percent. At that rate, it will take you nearly 40 years to double your money. If you put the money in the market and get a 4-percent return, your money will double in about 18 years. If you get the historical market average of 7 percent, your money will double in just over 10 years. ...”
“... Look outside the box.
“If you're late ..., you might consider investing beyond the 401(k) and Roth IRA, which come with limits on contributions.
“If you are younger than 50-years-old, you can only contribute up to $14,000 of your pre-tax earnings to your 401(k) this year. If you are 50 or older, you can contribute up to $18,000. As far as Roth IRAs go, you can contribute up to $4,000 this year, or $4,500 if you are 50 or older.
“Think outside those traditional retirement investments and consider investing in real estate, mutual funds (bonds & equities), certificates of deposit, or money market accounts. With any type of investment, however, you'll want to do your research. ...”
Every portfolio has an asset allocation that can be described by the percentage of assets in each asset class or subcategory. Diversifying among a broad range of asset classes is an important part of the asset allocation process.
The theory behind this is that by diversifying among different asset classes, an investment portfolio can be constructed that has less risk than the weighted average of its component parts. In other words, different asset classes move up and down at different times. The up and down movements are a risk for each asset class, but when combined with other asset classes the ups and downs of the total portfolio tend to be smoothed, with less subsequent risk.
Effective diversification depends not only on the number of assets in a portfolio but also on the ways and degrees in which their responses to economic events tend to reinforce, cancel, or neutralize one another.
One of the most common asset allocation techniques considers only three asset categories: stocks, bonds, and cash (or cash equivalents such as money markets and CDs). More sophisticated models use subcategories such as: large-capitalization stocks, foreign stocks, Treasury bills, corporate bonds, etc. Other categories might include various styles such as growth and value.
There are many ways to choose an asset allocation for your portfolio. Let’s look at some of the advice currently proposed to the investing public:
However, there is a way to determine an appropriate asset allocation for a portfolio that has nothing to do with age or multiple-choice questions, neither of which will provide you with the answers you need. I call this the Resource/Goal method for determining an appropriate asset allocation, and it is a three-step process:
Click here to read page and view tables.
“Time was when pundits would use a simple formula to determine what percent of your nest egg should go in stocks, what percent in bonds and what percent in money-market funds. Retirees would simply subtract their age from 100 to determine what percent should go in stocks. Someone 80 years old would be told to put 20% in stocks and the balance, 80%, in bonds. Someone 60 would be advised to put 40% in stocks and the balance, 60%, in bonds.
“But that was then and this is now. Experts today suggest retirees approach the asset-allocation question the same way they did when they were saving for retirement: That they assess their sources of income during retirement, their time horizon and their tolerance for risk and select the asset allocation that matches those factors.
“But as with things investing, that's easier said than done. ...”
Read entire article free, including a chart of representative mutual funds and their asset allocations, at CBS MarketWatch.
Using a Range of Investment and Savings Opportunities Wisely, including:
Selecting investments with the appropriate risk levels
from among
Informational pages on your retirement; provisions that may affect you:
No matter what your full retirement age is, you may start receiving benefits as early as age 62.
GOOD NEWS: SSA is developing online access to your own earnings history. They are considering also providing online an estimate of your retirement benefits BASED ON your personal earnings record. [Source: SSA online feedback query.]
Several "pitfall" areas exist in connection with retirement and Social Security; and we have undoubtedly noticed only a few so far in gathering information for this web site.
You may not run across them, either, until it is too late ... UNLESS YOU ARE WARY and take the time NOW to investigate how your retirement income sources will be affected by the laws and regulations for your locality and your particular circumstances.
Things to consider (NOT an exhaustive list):
– Leslie Grey Harper
“We now know the least and most tax-friendly states for all taxpaying Americans. Maine, New York, Hawaii, Rhode Island and Wisconsin are the least tax-friendly states, according to the Tax Foundation's latest report. And Alaska, New Hampshire, Delaware, Tennessee and Alabama are the most tax friendly, says the Washington-based think tank. See the Tax Foundation's list at its Web site.
“... Fortunately, finding the most personal-income tax-friendly states for retirees is easy enough,... . Seven states – Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming – don't levy a tax on personal income. New Hampshire and Tennessee collect income tax, but only on interest and dividend income. And several states – Alabama, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi and Pennsylvania – exclude in full or in part Social Security and pension benefits from income tax.
“But just because a state doesn't tax personal income or excludes from income Social Security or pension benefits doesn't make it the most tax-friendly place for a retiree to live, says Wetzel. Yes, you may live in a state. But you really live in a city or town or county. And that city, town or country might be clobbering you with property and other taxes.
“... Bankrate.com and Retirement Living provide summaries of the sales and other taxes levied in any of the 50 states on their Web sites. And CCH provides summaries of the various estate-tax laws in each state.
“See the Bankrate Web site. Visit Retirement Living's site. Here is CCHs Web site.
“For her part, Frances Schafer, a senior manager with KPMG's National Tax Practice in Washington says Florida, Nevada, Alabama and California are viewed as estate tax friendly.
“... Besides being tax-friendly, retirees might also want to consider whether their retirement assets are protected from creditors. A recent Supreme Court ruling says IRA assets can be protected from creditors. ...”
“Pension funding rules are intended to ensure that plans have sufficient assets to pay promised benefits to plan participants. However, recent terminations of large underfunded plans, along with continued widespread underfunding, suggest weaknesses in these rules that may threaten retirement incomes of these plans' participants, as well as the future viability of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) single-employer insurance program. We have prepared this report ... to assist the Congress in improving the financial stability of the defined benefit (DB) system and PBGC. ... This report examines: (1) the recent funding and contribution experience of the nation's largest private DB plans; (2) the funding and contribution experience of large underfunded plans, and the role of the additional funding charge (AFC); and (3) the implications of large plans' recent funding experiences for PBGC, in terms of risk to the agency's ability to insure benefits.
“Each year from 1995 to 2002, while most of the largest DB pension plans had assets that exceeded their current liabilities, 39 percent of plans on average were less than 100 percent funded. By 2002, almost one-fourth of the 100 largest plans were less than 90 percent funded. Further, because of leeway in the actuarial methodology and assumptions sponsors may use to measure plan assets and liabilities, underfunding may actually have been more severe and widespread than reported. Additionally, 62.5 percent of sponsors of the largest plans each year on average made no cash contribution because the rules allow sponsors to satisfy minimum funding requirements through plan accounting credits that substitute for cash contributions. From 1995 to 2002, only 6 unique plans in our sample were subject to an additional funding charge (AFC), the primary funding mechanism to address underfunding, a total of 23 times. By the time a firm was subject to an AFC, its plan was likely significantly underfunded, and such plans remained poorly funded. By using other funding credits, just over 30 percent of the time sponsors of these plans were able to forgo cash contributions in the years their plans were assessed an AFC. Two very large and significantly underfunded plans terminated without their sponsors owing a cash contribution in the 3 years prior to termination, illustrating further weaknesses in the AFC. To the extent that financially weak firms sponsor underfunded plans, weaknesses in funding rules create a potentially large financial risk to PBGC and thus retirement security generally. From 1995 to 2002, on average each year, 9 of the largest 100 plans had a sponsor with a speculative grade credit rating, suggesting financial weakness and poor creditworthiness. Plans of speculative grade-rated sponsors had lower average funding levels and were more likely to incur an AFC than other plans. As of September 30, 2004, PBGC estimated that plans of financially weak companies with a "reasonably possible" chance of termination had plans with an estimated $96 billion in underfunding.”

This chart appears in the full report in black and white. To view just the chart as it appears, click here. Chart will open in a new window.
The GAO recommends that “The Congress should consider broad pension reform that is comprehensive in scope and balanced in effect. However, if features of current regulation are retained, Congress should consider measures to strengthen the AFC [additional funding charge] and limit the use of funding standard account credits to substitute for cash contributions.”

The latest airline bankruptcies offer more evidence that our system of private pensions is crumbling.
It's inevitable that Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines will argue to their bankruptcy judge that they must jettison their pension obligations onto the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., the public's insurer.
Then, American Airlines and Continental – the only two carriers that offer pensions and aren't in bankruptcy – will say that they have no intention of doing the same, but that it sure is unfair for them to have this burden while their competitors don't.
And eventually, every airline will be like Southwest and won't offer a pension plan.
That's just the way it will be.
More disincentive
Meanwhile, to cover the shortfalls caused by this rush, pension providers soon may have to pay more into the insurance fund. That would be further disincentive for companies offering pensions to 40-odd million Americans.
Yet another disincentive looms.
The Financial Accounting Standards Board dictates the way corporate America keeps its books. In a long-overdue act, the FASB is expected to add pension reform to its agenda this fall.
The reason for the extended delay is self-preservation. The FASB likes being around.
Lobbyists for the corporations that treasure their legal right to obfuscate the health of their pensions could make life very difficult for the standards board. (Recall that the battle over stock options expensing nearly killed the FASB.)
The FASB could propose doing something radical – such as requiring companies to show the market value of pension assets and the future costs of pension obligations on their balance sheets.
It may come as a surprise to know that these hard promises have always been kept off the balance sheet.
The reason it happens gets to the heart of why Enron failed to reflect all its debts on its books – the truth would have revealed the company for what it really was, an unattractive investment.
The fact is, pension accounting reform is the right thing to do.
Plans down the drain?
But Credit Suisse First Boston accounting analyst David Zion predicts it will toss many a retiree into the cold.
“A big change in pension accounting could be the tipping point that sparks significant changes in behavior by companies that sponsor defined-benefit pension plans,” he wrote recently.
These changes include a shift in assets – probably to bonds – plan restructurings, more plans being frozen or all-out dumping of plans.
The good news for workers is that these battles typically drag on for years.
That should give soon-to-be retirees a chance to take advantage of accelerated contributions to new retirement plans, such as Individual Retirement Accounts, before employers shutter their pension plans.
E-mail ddimartino@dallasnews.com
[scroll for full text]
Back to Top“... Three fundamental principles apply to the taxation of most pensions in the United States and most other countries taking this approach:
“1. Contributions are tax exempt (excluded from income) or tax deductible (E, signifying exempt).
“2. Pension investment earnings are tax exempt (E), and
“3. Pension benefits are taxable (T, signifying taxable).
“This general approach of taxation of pensions is sometimes called the EET model.In the United States, for most types of pension plans, employee contributions are not tax deductible, the 401(k) plan being an exception. ... in effect tax payments are deferred until benefits are received in retirement.
“This approach results in lost tax revenue to the national government.It can be an inefficient use of revenue because it induces higher-income workers simply to shift their other savings to tax-favored accounts.With a progressive tax system, under which lower-income workers have lower marginal tax rates, there may be little incentive for low-income workers to participate.A criticism of this approach is that it targets incentives to higher-income workers because they have higher marginal tax rates.There is a trade-off between the cost to the government from the tax incentives offered and the amount by which pension participation is increased.Also, there may be a tradeoff between encouraging low-income workers to participate and providing too much in incentives to higher-wage workers, who are more likely to participate in any case.”
Shows how a 401(k) could permit substantially greater accumulation of assets than investing the same money in equities. In-depth discussion of present and future tax issues with formulas for calculations at the bottom.
This statement favors defined benefit plans.
“Much has been made of the growth of defined contribution (401K type) pension plans for American workers. Despite claims to the contrary, defined benefit pension plans still provide the best benefit to retired workers and to workers planning their retirement. Defined benefit plans are not only better for employees, but are also better for employers, and are simply better public policy.
Defined Benefit Pension Plans are Better for Employees
Defined Benefit Pension Plans are Better for Employers
Defined Benefit Pension Plans are Better Public Policy
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, AFL-CIO
[included here as representative of a body of government workers]
The Administration's Proposal for Pension Reform at EBSA, Department of Labor
This site is the official location for all Administration documents pertaining to President Bush's pension reform proposal as to single employer defined benefit pension plans. It includes all Federal Agencies as well as Department of Labor and is kept up to date.
(click charts to see PDF version of Statement)

Executive Summary
Taxing Social Security Benefits
Under current law, Social Security beneficiaries are subject to two tiers of taxation on their benefits if their income exceeds certain thresholds. For purposes of determining the thresholds, income consists of three components: (1) adjusted gross income (e.g., wages, dividends, taxable distributions from pensions and Individual Retirement Accounts), (2) one-half of Social Security benefits, and (3) income from tax-exempt bonds.(fn.13)
As illustrated in Figure 3. [below], single individuals with income above $25,000 (including one-half of their Social Security benefits) are subject to tax on up to 50 percent of their Social Security benefits. Furthermore, to the extent that their income exceeds $34,000 per year, up to 85 percent of their benefits are taxable.
As a result, in 2005 a 65-year-old individual receiving maximum Social Security benefits who earns as little as $13,367 in wages from continuing in the workforce will exceed the first threshold, and his Social Security benefits will begin to be taxed (up to maximum of one-half of his benefits).(fn.14) And, to the extent that the individual has non-wage income, such as pension distributions, dividends, or interest on tax-exempt bonds, the amount of wages he can earn without triggering the tax on Social Security benefits declines dollar for dollar.
Thus, earning an extra dollar in wages boosts his taxable income by $1.50 – one dollar of wages plus one-half of each benefit dollar above the first threshold – which translates into an effective marginal tax rate on that extra dollar of 22.5 percent, assuming he is in the 15-percent tax bracket.(fn.15) Additionally, the individual continues to pay Social Security, Medicare, and state income taxes on his wages,(fn.16), which increases the overall tax burden even further.
To the extent that a 65-year-old individual earns more than $22,367, she triggers the second-tier tax, subjecting up to 85 percent of her Social Security benefits to tax.(fn.17) In terms of the tax rates, this second-tier tax can result in an effetive tax rate as high as 46.25 percent, assuming the beneficiary is in the 25-percent tax bracket.(fn.18) At the extreme, with the maximum statutory income-tax rate currently at 35 percent, a Social Security beneficiary who chooses to keep working may face a greater effective tax rate on Social Security benefits than the highest-earning Americans endure on their regular income.
The tax on Social Security benefits for married couples is even more onerous because of the inherent marriage penalty in the tax. As illustrated in Figure 3 [above] (on page 5), the income thresholds for married couples are not double the level applicable to single persons – in fact, they are less than 130 percent of the threshold for singles.
______________
13. Section 86(b) of the Internal Revenue Code (IRC) of 1986 (26 U.S.C. §86(B)).
14. The maximum Social Security benefit for 2005 of $23,268. SSA, "Program Highlights, 2004-2005," – http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/prog_highlights/index.html. One half of such benefits ($11,634) plus wages of $13,367, exceeds the 50-percent threshold for single taxpayers by $1.
15. One dollar of wages plus 50 cents of taxable Social Security benefits equals $1.50 of taxable income. At the 15-percent tax rate, such income creates a tax liability of 22.5 cents. Thus, the dollar earned results in an effective tax rate of 22.5 percent (i.e., $0.225/$1.00 = 0.225 or 22.5 percent).
16. Workers pay 6.2 percent in Social Security tax (i.e., FICA) on wages up to $90,000 in 2005; employers are responsible for a matching tax payment. IRC §§3101 and 3111.
17. Assuming the maximum Social Security benefit for 2005 of $23,268, one half of such benefits ($11,634) plus wages of $22,367, exceeds the 85-percent threshold for single taxpayers by $1.
(More Coming Soon)
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